Moontown

With a changed political landscape, Prime Minister Winston Baldwin Spencer, announced that he is fully prepared to abide by the judgment of the Eastern Caribbean Court of Appeal. Should Justice Blenman’s ruling be upheld, Antiguans and Barbudans will have to decide between Opposition Leader, Lester Bird’s experience and Prime Minister Spencer’s fatigue.

Dr Isaac Newton is an international leadership and change management consultant and political adviser who specialises in government and business relations, and sustainable development projects. Dr Newton works extensively in West Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America, and is a graduate of Oakwood College, Harvard, Princeton and Columbia. He has published several books on personal development and written many articles on economics, leadership, political, social, and faith-based issues

The political atmosphere is so disquieting that Albert J. Redhead, retired Justice of Appeal, used his legal skills and professional experiences to highlight the virtues of the rule of law. In an article entitled, “The Judiciary will not be intimidated by threats from whatsoever source” (Daily Observer, Wednesday July 14, 2010), he challenged leaders within the legal and political arenas, to guard against oppressive factions that pollute the fountain of liberty. He argued brilliantly that the doctrine of the rule of law is not adverse to our collective happiness or inconsistent with proven constitutional rights and democratic values.

It is clear that Justice Albert Redhead meant to convey that amongst the provisions giving efficacy to good governance is, respect for the judiciary. He claimed that courageous Justices willing to rule on the merit of the law, regardless of social standing, prevent jungle-culture. They create a more just and peaceful society. His position deserves a standing ovation.

National consciousness

But given the prevailing winds of uncertainty, some believe that decisions are being made, to appear to right past wrongs, yet these decisions represent political calculations aimed at stacking the deck against the Antigua Labour Party (ALP).

Two incidents awakened by public attention come to mind. First, Governor General Louise Lake-Tack’s decision to suspend the Electoral Commission (EC) pending the outcome of a tribunal has not gone unnoticed. It is hoped that with the appointment of an interim EC, the people’s ability to vote freely and fairly will not be ominous. But it is believed that the next EC chairperson will receive direct instructions from Spencer, under the guise of becoming election-ready, to gain political advantage.

Second, the Commissioner of Police made public the need to investigate criminal charges, most likely against elected ALP members, arising from his evaluation of the Linguist Report. One ill effect of approaching the Linguist Report in this way is that it is perceived as shrouded in cloudy considerations that have more to do with the politics of power than the practice of justice. This could backfire.

Within this intense context, leadership maturity must be affirmed as citizens voice their ambivalence towards or outright disapproval of the PM’s actions and inactions. Indiscreet zeal cannot be made to plunge a relatively peaceful society into sudden chaos.

To counter this undercurrent, a campaign built solely on hope and promise will not attract the people. Foremost in Antiguans and Barbudans’ mind, is bread and safety concerns. Only refreshingly practical programs that illustrate wise thinking about national economic recovery and crime reduction initiatives are likely to take root.

Much to overcome

James Baldwin, once wrote, “Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced.” The idea of Spencer finding the courage to face the people is painful to contemplate. I observe the many delay tactics the PM is deploying. Still, a vast majority has become increasingly skeptical and tired—skeptical of Spencer’s capacity to lead effectively, and tired of too few concrete examples of perceived prosperity.

Most people no longer see the PM through the lens of blue skies and sunshine. This means that United Progress Party (UPP) will have a harder case to make. Spencer will have to talk about reasons why meaningful social change did not occur, and show what he would do to change it. His administration became saddled with the perception that serious allegations of internal corruption went unanswered.

Spencer is also accused of abandoning loyal supporters who were brave enough to offer constructive criticisms, while failing to capitalize on opportunities for right-thinking diplomacy.

There is general resentment that Spencer neglected core values such as good governance and transparency in public office and that he misapplied taxation, immigration, and economic revitalization policies to the detriment of the nation.

Perhaps the heart of the PM’s downfall centers on an obsession with the mistakes of previous administrations. Spencer did not concentrate on delivering tangible successes to an expectant population, waiting for change.

Perchance, Spencer showed disinterest in turning inherited political fortunate into meeting quality of life needs, because he was struggling to find a strong party-identity to match his vision of change.

General elections likely

Supporters of the PM are concerned about the deadly rancor in the UPP over the struggle to call general elections instead of by-elections. Opponents feel that Spencer’s leadership has led to joblessness, increase in crime and rising hopelessness amongst the young, all of which favors general elections.

I intuit that the only chance the PM has to win in the present political climate is if he chooses by-elections. But I predict that given mixed motives, he will opt for general elections. The rationale is that some influential folks close to Spencer, believe that minister Harold Lovell (next in line for the leadership of the UPP) should take the party into victory, not through the backdoor, but by squarely defeating opponents.

They also hold that by-elections could return the PM to power with a reduced seat, and that this would make his tenure fickle and ineffective. Fear abounds that a slim victory could evoke the real possibly of any minister, holding Spencer hostage in parliament.

The PM cannot afford to dismiss with disdain, former members of parliament in the party, who firmly believe that they are likely to do better in general elections. They express incredible optimism that they can recover from being defeated by a relatively small margin.

Moreover, some die-hard UPP supporters prefer general elections. They think that the party is better off recovering in opposition, than trying to find its way in government, without Spencer as prime minister.

According to some UPP strategists, the case for general elections is solid. They feel that the ALP will not be able to convince the people that Baldwin’s best is a mess. However, the momentum indicates that Bird can make the case most convincingly, that the nation is better with Lester.

A broader framework

In planting as in leading, those who sow few seeds will harvest a small crop. Leaders addicted to the past waiver in achieving present goals and falter in bringing to fruition future dreams. Compassion, drive and vision distinguish great leaders from those soon forgotten. But it is sustainable results and empowerment of others that will expand leaders’ tenure beyond the scope of their office.

The conversations I have had in and outside of the country indicate that the people are hungry for a leader who shows great depth and sensitivity to the fear and uncertainty that they are experiencing. Antigua and Barbuda is as strong as the shoulders of its leader. Spencer has not proven that he can convert collective aspiration into developmental success.

If elections are called, leaders that provide constituents with resources to address global challenges with local solutions will emerge the winners in contested constituencies.

With the political landscape changing so rapidly and drastically, Spencer is unwilling to move in a new direction. He fiercely avoids solid local and Diasporic human energy and intelligence. The PM will continue to plunge towards a deadly precipice caused by political miscalculations and strategic failures. (Caribnet)