Bourse
Sagicor Financial Corporation
Sagicor Financial Corporation (SFC) reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.021 for the first quarter ended March 31st 2010. This represents a decline of 44.7 per cent from the EPS of US$0.038 recorded in the previous year. According to the group’s chairman, results were adversely affected by insurance losses arising from the February 27th Chilean earthquake amounting to US$7.5M, equivalent to US$.027 per share before taxation. These losses were incurred by Sagicor at Lloyds.
The group’s total revenue expanded 17.0 per cent over the year from US$250.0M to US$ 292.5M. Contributing to this growth was an 18.7 per cent increase in net premium to US$197.3M. Net investment and other income increased 13.7 per cent to US$95.3M year-on-year.
On the expenditure side, total benefits rose 31.8 per cent from US$134.4 to US$177.2M in 1Q 2010.This resulted in Benefits as a percentage of net premium deteriorating to 90 per cent in 1Q 2010 versus 81 per cent in 1Q 2009. Expenses also grew, increasing 4.4 per cent to US$98.1M year-on-year.
SFC’s Income before taxes fell 20 per cent over the year from US$21.5M to US$17.2M. The combined growth in benefits and expenses outweighed the growth in revenue, and so contributed toward this decline.
The group’s bottom line profitability was reduced further as a higher effective tax rate of 27.1 per cent in 1Q 2010 was charged relative to the 17.4 per cent in 1Q 2009. As a margin of the top-line, Net Income accounted for 4.28 per cent of total revenue, versus 7.11 per cent of revenue in 2009. Net Income reported for 1Q 2010 was US$12.5M, a 29.5% decline from US$17.8M in 2009. It should be noted that SFC’s contribution to minority shareholders fell 13.3 per cent to US$7.0M year-on-year.
Looking at the group’s investment portfolio, fair value gains on Available for sale financial assets of US$28.7M were recorded for 1Q 2010 compared to fair value losses of US$12.8 recorded in 1Q 2009. This turnaround can be attributed to the recovery in global financial markets and particularly in Jamaica where gains in bond valuation were recorded with the implementation of the Jamaica debt exchange (JDX) in 1Q 2010.
Going forward, the increased level of volatility and heightened uncertainty in the global financial market could have a negative impact on the value of the investment portfolio. With around 36 per cent of revenue being generated in Jamaica, as of December 31 2009, any slowdown in the economy could negatively impact the Group’s results. Although the Jamaican economy has shown some level of improvement in recent months with the intervention by the IMF, some level of uncertainty remains as to the longevity of this stability. Recent violence would have not have affected market sentiments. Continued business growth in SFC’s UK and US operations should continue to support SFC’s development as well as contribute to the group’s top-line revenue.
The group’s benefits may face upward pressure as a strong hurricane season is forecast for the year. SFC’s Benefits ratio reached a high of 82.26 per cent in 2004, however over the period 2005-2008 this ratio showed improvement until 2009 as shown in Exhibit 1. It should be noted that it was in 2004 this increase in benefits was significantly influenced by the increase in claims experienced by the groups property and casualty subsidiary resulting from the impact of hurricane Ivan on many Caribbean Islands. Any such recurrence will hit the bottom line further and as such the group may need to seriously manage its expenses to minimise deterioration in profits.
In terms of fundamental valuations, at the current price of TT$10.00, SFC is trading at a trailing P/E multiple of 9.7 times.The market-to-book ratio of 0.84 is attractive as compared to the five year average of 1.3 times. On a technical note, the stock is currently trading at the lowest levels since listing in 2004. With the possibility of lower earnings in 2010 and in light of the fair valuation, BOURSE revises its recommendation to a HOLD.
Ansa McAl Limited
Ansa McAl Limited (AMCL) reported a diluted EPS of $0.67 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010. This represents an 8.1 per cent growth relative to the EPS of $0.62 recorded in 2009.
At the top-line, Revenue was up 3.4 per cent from $1.17B in 2009 to $1.21B in 2010. Revenue from the group’s automotive, trading and distribution segment, which accounted for 44.3 per cent of the group’s Total Revenue, increased 8.20 per cent to $537.4M year-on-year. The manufacturing, packaging and brewing segment revenue also showed growth, increasing 9.86 per cent to $422.0M, while the insurance and financial services segment expanded 6.4 per cent to $194.1M year-on-year. The only segment that contracted was the media, services and parent company, where revenue declined 45.7 per cent to $59.3M. This segment accounted for only 4.9 per cent of the group’s total revenue. (See Exhibit 2)
Ansa McAl’s operating profit for the period expanded 8.3 per cent to $207.3M from the $191.4M in 2009. As a percentage of revenue, the operating profit margin showed some improvement moving from 16.3 per cent in 1Q 2009 to 17.1 per cent 1Q 2010. This margin is likely to increase as operating profits and revenue improve in the latter quarters as seen in Exhibit 3.
The group’s finance cost remained relatively flat for the period, moving to $28.9M in 1Q 2010, while profit before taxation expanded 10.5 per cent over the period to $183.2M.
Ansa McAl’s profit after taxation moved from $130.7M to $142.9M, an increase of 9.3 per cent year on year as the taxation rate remained relatively flat at around 22.0 per cent.
The group was able to extend growth to its balance sheet, with total assets increasing 7.2 per cent to $10.68B in 1Q 2010 from $9.97B in 1Q 2009.
Looking forward, the group may face some challenges in growing revenue in some of its segments. For instance, the manufacturing sector may incur some level of difficulty in growing revenue, since companies such as ABEL, Bestcrete, Penta and Sissons Paints may be affected by a weakened construction activity. On the local front construction activity may continue to fall as the rainy season approaches, while future and current national construction projects may be slowed as a result of the change in government. However, the packaging and brewing areas that contribute to this segment can contribute towards positive growth. For instance, Carib, produced by Carib Brewery Limited, continues to be one of the best selling both locally and regionally. There may be some possible signs of improvement in the Media, Services and Parent company segment, since Guardian Media Limited revenue is expected to improve as a result of higher income being generated from political parties advertising during the just concluded election campaign. Within the financial segment, Ansa Merchant Bank and Insurance subsidiaries may not see much growth in 2010 given the uncertainty in the financial market. Continued management of expenses and margins will benefit the Group’s bottom-line profitability.
Given that Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados are the two main countries in which AMCL operates, the performance of these economies are likely to be reflected in performance of AMCL since there exist a strong correlation between the performance of many of the Group’s sectors and economic conditions. According to IMF data the change in real GDP in 2010 is projected to be -0.5 per cent and 2.1 per cent in Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago respectively. If economic conditions show signs of stability and eventually pick-up, the conglomerates will be among the first to reflect this growth.
At the current price of $46.00, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E multiple of 13.50 times. Historically the stock has traded at an average multiple of 14.7 times in the last 10 years. However during the period 2001 and 2002, when economic conditions were similar, the average P/E was around 12.0 times. Given the improvements in earnings for the first quarter combined with the stable outlook, BOURSE revises its recommendation to a HOLD. (Trinidad Express)