POLL NOTHING MORE THAN DATA
Thursday, November 5th, 2009
DENIS KELLMAN’S COLUMN- THE DEBATE
BARBADOS ADVOCATE
I have predicted, based on some solid statistics, that the next General Elections will be held in 2006. This conclusion is based on Prime Minister Arthur being able to withstand the pressure from the internal dynamics that are playing out within the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) since the poll. It is evident that the poll does not match the internal feelings of the BLP.
Within the Barbados Labour Party, the members are still backing their election machine which has been able to deliver three straight wins. This poll is no different from those which were presented before, and the Democratic Labour Party members will be stupid to see this poll as anything more than data. Polls have never been interpreted in favour of the DLP and the danger of this poll is that the Government is now in its middle term. A careful analysis of this period would assume that the DLP’s showing is far better than the BLP’s.
In 2001, a poll was done demonstrating that the Democratic Labour Party would have been demoralized in the By-Election. The data revealed that the Barbados Labour Party, its leader, the candidate and the former candidate were very popular in the constituency. On the positive side, the candidate who was a young man and a son of St. Thomas was showing signs of increasing his popularity in the constituency.
The pollsters gave us no chance of impacting on the constituency. I was given the “hot potato” to carry and everybody close to me advised me not to take the job. I accepted the job after agreeing with the senior member that I would still attend to my international commitment. This was accepted by everyone until the election began. However, I recognized early that I had to carry out my plans to show the Barbadian public that within the DLP were persons who could demonstrate their independence in order to get the public to continue to support the party.
The Barbados Labour Party expected a campaign that would have seen us behaving like them, but the opposite occurred so much so, certain members accused me of selling out to Owen. This did not deter me and I continued the political strategy that dumb founded my critics.
The candidate was told to focus on the problems within St. Thomas, which were told to us as we did the daily canvassing. He was also told that he could not criticize anything without providing a sensible solution to the problem. This strategy worked so well for us that we were able to defy what the polls were showing and caused the BLP to have internal strife by forcing the Prime Minister to replace Minister Mottley as campaign manager. This also occurred at a time when 50 per cent of the canvassers disappeared from the ground. When this was reported to me by the one who had taken charge in my absence, Mr. Morris, I was surprised since I knew of the ground support that we were receiving on a one-to-one basis.
The press played a major role and I was quick to warn the candidate about the type of information that he was giving to the press. I thought that the progress report was too direct and that the opponents were able to use it to counter us.
Pollsters and political scientists must tell the public why the minimum swing in St. Thomas was eight percent, and how much it would have been, had not for certain dynamics. They must also tell the public what would have been the impact had the momentum from St. Thomas been allowed to permeate through the country.
Political parties cannot continue to offer persons to the public, and then put them in positions to embarrass themselves. When the reverse occurs, the garbage bin is the next choice. The record will show whenever the election report on St. Thomas is published, that the party was able to create a minimum of 8 per cent swing in the Barbados Labour Party safest seat against Prime Minister Arthur and Minister Mottley as campaign managers.
I have found over the years that my elections fate has been ignored y the Press, political scientists and my own comrades, who have refused to use the plus which my candidacy has been able to create for the party. It is rather interesting that while these players have ignored the impact of it, the BLP has asked for a case study.
Had this feat been done by anyone else, political commentators would still be using it as a factor to help propel a political party that dominates at the party level, but cannot do the same thing at leadership level. Political scientists have been baffled at the increase popularity of Minister Mottley over the other three, but they do not understand that she is the only one that has not been damaged because of leadership, since she has never led. Any equal comparison with Minister Mottley would have been someone who the public sees as a possible leader.
Over a week ago, pollster Peter Wickham asked me after conducting a poll for the other newspaper who I will be supporting? He then asked me whether it would have been Messrs Estwick, Mascoll or Thompson? One would have to wonder, how come the question was asked of me when the poll showed something else? I was told by the same person that I only got a few votes in the poll, but the pollster did not tell the public that I got personal votes and that the persons voting for me went against the status quo or the projected leaders who would carry the party support. I am sure that the pollster would appreciate this point.
I have always gone against the norm and will continue to baffle persons who feel that they can dictate to the electorate who is best suited to represent their interest. I did it in 1994, 1999, 2001 and will continue to operate outside the equation of political scientists.
Another point that Mr. Wickham has not recognized is that Barbadians only see you as a potential leader when you contest the race for presidency and not chairmanship as they keep referring to within the DLP. The only chairman the party has is its Political Leader. I have observed that both Messrs Hoyte and Wickham have referred to a poll in three months and have assumed that the race will be limited to their two candidates, not realizing that any change making the Political Leader chairman of the party will see an increased in political activity within the party and can also result in a member outside of parliament becoming Political Leader and not only Party Leader.
Section 50 of the Party’s Constitution must be carefully studied, because it has allowed the party to be more democratic than other parties, minus the hiccup. We cannot chop and change every few years like how the English have used the ICC. Any changes that must occur must be in the interest of the organization. Constitutions cannot be seen as toys, like how the present Government treats the Constitution of Barbados, which they constantly change to achieve their objectives.
Let us have peace, fairness, truthfulness, honesty, love and unity.
(Denis Kellman is the Member of Parliament for St. Lucy, Barbados)

